Mzinyathi River Ukuqikelela Kwesikhukhula

Bonisa imbali: Ukuqikelela okudlulileyo

Umda wesikhukhula (m): Bonisa

Ukusuka: Ukuya:

Iimodeli Zezulu

Iinkcukacha-manani

Umgangatho Wamanzi

Elona Lincinane—

Phakathi—

Elona Likhulu—

Imvula

Iyonke—

Ephezulu Ngeyure—

Phakathi Ngeyure—

Iiyure Zemvula—

Ukuchaneka Kokuqikelela

MAE (m) ngokuqikelela ubude

Imodeli	1-6h	7-12h	13-24h	25-48h	49-72h	73h+
Ensemble Mean	0.0165	0.0314	0.0430	0.0513	0.0565	0.0652
Best Match	0.0164	0.0312	0.0412	0.0472	0.0512	0.0620
CMA GRAPES	0.0161	0.0306	0.0442	0.0567	0.0587	0.0579
ECMWF AIFS	0.0194	0.0381	0.0533	0.0643	0.0708	0.0844
ECMWF IFS	0.0162	0.0312	0.0420	0.0484	0.0531	0.0659
ECMWF IFS 0.25°	0.0174	0.0340	0.0453	0.0527	0.0579	0.0718
GFS Global	0.0162	0.0299	0.0404	0.0485	0.0547	0.0647
GFS Seamless	0.0162	0.0299	0.0404	0.0485	0.0547	0.0647
MET Norway	0.0162	0.0312	0.0420	0.0484	0.0531	0.0659
NCEP AI-GFS	0.0187	0.0371	0.0522	0.0642	0.0690	0.0793
NCEP HGEFS	0.0165	0.0306	0.0417	0.0525	0.0593	0.0723
UKMO Global	0.0177	0.0336	0.0480	0.0590	0.0648	0.0717

Kususelwa kuthelekiso olu-7,386,048 phakathi kwesiqikelelo nomqwalaselo (lonke ixesha). Kuhlaziywa ngeyure nganye njengoko imibiko emitsha iqinisekisa iziqikelelo ezidlulileyo.

Oku kubalwa njani?

Ngeyure nganye, inkqubo yenza iziqikelelo zomgangatho wamanzi zeentsuku ezi-7 ezilandelayo isebenzisa ukuqikelela kwemvula kwemodeli yezulu nganye. Xa imibiko yokwenyani ifika, amaxabiso aqikelelweyo athelekiswa noko kwenzeke ngokwenene. I-MAE (Mean Absolute Error) ngumahluko ophakathi phakathi komgangatho oqikelelweyo noqwalaselweyo — okuncinci kungcono. Iikholamu zahlula iziqikelelo ngokuba zenziwe kwangaphambili kangakanani: isiqikelelo se-"1-6h" silula kunese-"73h+". Amaxabiso anombala: eluhlaza < 0.02m, emthubi < 0.05m, e-orenji < 0.1m, ebomvu ≥ 0.1m.