Palmiet River Flood Forecast

Show history: Past forecasts

Flood threshold (m): Show

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Weather Models

Statistics

Water Level

Min—

Mean—

Max—

Rainfall

Total—

Max Hourly—

Mean Hourly—

Wet Hours—

Forecast Accuracy

MAE (m) by forecast horizon

Model	1-6h	7-12h	13-24h	25-48h	49-72h	73h+
Ensemble Mean	0.0873	0.0838	0.0836	0.0815	0.0830	0.0932
Best Match	0.0896	0.0865	0.0867	0.0840	0.0879	0.0980
CMA GRAPES	0.0893	0.0871	0.0884	0.0856	0.0878	0.1015
ECMWF AIFS	0.0874	0.0827	0.0822	0.0815	0.0807	0.0925
ECMWF IFS	0.0895	0.0864	0.0866	0.0843	0.0874	0.0972
ECMWF IFS 0.25°	0.0891	0.0873	0.0875	0.0872	0.0875	0.0941
GFS Global	0.0935	0.0905	0.0893	0.0875	0.0875	0.1057
GFS Seamless	0.0935	0.0905	0.0893	0.0875	0.0875	0.1057
MET Norway	0.0895	0.0864	0.0866	0.0843	0.0874	0.0972
NCEP AI-GFS	0.0904	0.0878	0.0854	0.0831	0.0828	0.1001
NCEP HGEFS	0.0863	0.0830	0.0839	0.0849	0.0856	0.0964
UKMO Global	0.0941	0.0924	0.0937	0.0902	0.0949	0.1020

Based on 609,240 prediction-observation comparisons (all-time). Updates every hour as new observations verify past predictions.

How is this calculated?

Each hour, the system generates water level predictions for the next 7 days using each weather model's rainfall forecast. Once real observations come in, the predicted values are compared against what actually happened. MAE (Mean Absolute Error) is the average difference between predicted and observed levels — lower is better. Columns group predictions by how far ahead they were made: a "1-6h" prediction is easier to get right than a "73h+" one. Values are colour-coded: green < 0.02m, yellow < 0.05m, orange < 0.1m, red ≥ 0.1m.