Iimodeli Zezulu
Iinkcukacha-manani
Umgangatho Wamanzi
Elona Lincinane—
Phakathi—
Elona Likhulu—
Imvula
Iyonke—
Ephezulu Ngeyure—
Phakathi Ngeyure—
Iiyure Zemvula—
Ukuchaneka Kokuqikelela
MAE (m) ngokuqikelela ubude| Imodeli | 1-6h | 7-12h | 13-24h | 25-48h | 49-72h | 73h+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ensemble Mean | 0.0138 | 0.0155 | 0.0151 | 0.0174 | 0.0134 | 0.0096 |
| Best Match | 0.0133 | 0.0148 | 0.0146 | 0.0159 | 0.0141 | 0.0131 |
| CMA GRAPES | 0.0126 | 0.0164 | 0.0149 | 0.0173 | 0.0143 | 0.0134 |
| ECMWF AIFS | 0.0127 | 0.0150 | 0.0156 | 0.0171 | 0.0156 | 0.0089 |
| ECMWF IFS | 0.0133 | 0.0148 | 0.0146 | 0.0159 | 0.0141 | 0.0131 |
| ECMWF IFS 0.25° | 0.0136 | 0.0155 | 0.0141 | 0.0158 | 0.0137 | 0.0134 |
| GFS Global | 0.0174 | 0.0181 | 0.0185 | 0.0217 | 0.0167 | 0.0136 |
| GFS Seamless | 0.0174 | 0.0181 | 0.0185 | 0.0217 | 0.0167 | 0.0136 |
| MET Norway | 0.0133 | 0.0148 | 0.0146 | 0.0159 | 0.0141 | 0.0131 |
| NCEP AI-GFS | 0.0143 | 0.0177 | 0.0212 | 0.0233 | 0.0156 | 0.0127 |
| NCEP HGEFS | 0.0137 | 0.0164 | 0.0166 | 0.0173 | 0.0136 | 0.0096 |
| UKMO Global | 0.0124 | 0.0154 | 0.0152 | 0.0168 | 0.0138 | 0.0132 |
Kususelwa kuthelekiso olu-130,236 phakathi kwesiqikelelo nomqwalaselo (lonke ixesha). Kuhlaziywa ngeyure nganye njengoko imibiko emitsha iqinisekisa iziqikelelo ezidlulileyo.
Oku kubalwa njani?
Ngeyure nganye, inkqubo yenza iziqikelelo zomgangatho wamanzi zeentsuku ezi-7 ezilandelayo isebenzisa ukuqikelela kwemvula kwemodeli yezulu nganye. Xa imibiko yokwenyani ifika, amaxabiso aqikelelweyo athelekiswa noko kwenzeke ngokwenene. I-MAE (Mean Absolute Error) ngumahluko ophakathi phakathi komgangatho oqikelelweyo noqwalaselweyo — okuncinci kungcono. Iikholamu zahlula iziqikelelo ngokuba zenziwe kwangaphambili kangakanani: isiqikelelo se-"1-6h" silula kunese-"73h+". Amaxabiso anombala: eluhlaza < 0.02m, emthubi < 0.05m, e-orenji < 0.1m, ebomvu ≥ 0.1m.