Umbilo River (Stapleton Rd) Isibikezelo Sesikhukhula

Bonisa umlando: Izibikezelo ezedlule

Umkhawulo wesikhukhula (m): Bonisa

Kusukela: Kuya:

Amamodeli Ezulu

Izibalo

Izinga Lamanzi

Okuncinane—

Okumaphakathi—

Okukhulu—

Imvula

Isamba—

Okukhulu Ngehora—

Okumaphakathi Ngehora—

Amahora Emvula—

Ukunemba Kwezibikezelo

MAE (m) ngokwebanga lesibikezelo

Imodeli	1-6h	7-12h	13-24h	25-48h	49-72h	73h+
Ensemble Mean	0.0138	0.0155	0.0151	0.0174	0.0134	0.0096
Best Match	0.0133	0.0148	0.0146	0.0159	0.0141	0.0131
CMA GRAPES	0.0126	0.0164	0.0149	0.0173	0.0143	0.0134
ECMWF AIFS	0.0127	0.0150	0.0156	0.0171	0.0156	0.0089
ECMWF IFS	0.0133	0.0148	0.0146	0.0159	0.0141	0.0131
ECMWF IFS 0.25°	0.0136	0.0155	0.0141	0.0158	0.0137	0.0134
GFS Global	0.0174	0.0181	0.0185	0.0217	0.0167	0.0136
GFS Seamless	0.0174	0.0181	0.0185	0.0217	0.0167	0.0136
MET Norway	0.0133	0.0148	0.0146	0.0159	0.0141	0.0131
NCEP AI-GFS	0.0143	0.0177	0.0212	0.0233	0.0156	0.0127
NCEP HGEFS	0.0137	0.0164	0.0166	0.0173	0.0136	0.0096
UKMO Global	0.0124	0.0154	0.0152	0.0168	0.0138	0.0132

Kususelwa kuqhathaniso oku-130,236 lwesibikezelo nomklamo (sikhathi sonke). Kuvuselelwa njalo ngehora njengoba imibiko emisha iqinisekisa izibikezelo ezedlule.

Lokhu kubalwa kanjani?

Njalo ngehora, uhlelo lwenza izibikezelo zezinga lamanzi zezinsuku ezi-7 ezilandelayo lusebenzisa isibikezelo semvula semodeli yezulu ngayinye. Uma imibiko yangempela ifika, amanani abikezelwe aqhathaniswa nalokho okwenzeke ngempela. I-MAE (Mean Absolute Error) imehluko ophakathi phakathi kwezinga elibikezelwe neliboniwe — okuncane kungcono. Izinhla zihlukanisa izibikezelo ngokuthi zenziwe kudala kangakanani: isibikezelo se-"1-6h" silula kunese-"73h+". Amanani anombala: oluhlaza < 0.02m, ophuzi < 0.05m, o-orenji < 0.1m, obomvu ≥ 0.1m.